| Every couple of weeks until the primary, we’ll take a closer look the candidates, what they are up to, and what chance they have at winning the Democratic Party nomination. Qualifying has come and gone, and our candidate field is set. Judging from the tenor of qualifying week this race is going to be a fun one to watch. The comment section is there for you to chime in and agree/disagree. Overview The fireworks started immediately. Qualifying week served to cement pre-conceived notions about each of the candidates, their strategies moving forward, and where we can expect to see the fights erupt as this primary race gets underway. There are slight, nuanced, changes to the rankings in this update, but the underlying fundamentals of this race stay the same. Vernon Jones and Jim Martin remain in the first tier, the "3 Outsiders" remain in the second, and we lose the 3rd tier as Maggie Martinez takes a pass and doesn’t qualify for the race.
1st Tier
 Vernon Jones
Vernon Jones, chief executive of DeKalb County, continues to live in the first tier despite serious negative factors that have yet to be fully fleshed out in this primary campaign. We did however get a preview during a qualifying day press conference, where Jones called the Democratic Party of Georgia a bunch of “losers”, and confirmed once again he voted for George W. Bush, twice. In addition to that, Jones treated the media to his self-anointed moniker of “gas warrior”, and said he needed to study the Iraq war before he commented on it (even though we have been involved in Iraq for 5 years).
Despite those obvious pitfalls in a Democratic primary, Vernon Jones is still banking on the racial makeup of the primary, and his base of power in DeKalb County, to carry him through a primary pitted against 4 white male candidates. Should any of his challengers invest the resources required to amplify elements of the Vernon Jones record, it appears they will be doing so on the already high negative base Jones is carrying in recent opinion polls. At the end of the first quarter, Vernon Jones has raised $499,396, with a “cash on hand” balance of 256,031.   Jim Martin
Jim Martin, former state legislator and former Commissioner of Human Resources, flexed his fundraising and establishment support prowess early by raising 350K in the first 2 weeks of his candidacy. Martin has also garnered the endorsement of in-state party leaders like frm. Governor Roy Barnes, and is tacitly backed by US Senate leadership, having received leadership PAC donations from the Sen. Harry Reid and Sen. Dick Durbin. However, more than a month since he announced, voters have heard very little from the Martin campaign. Martin has made only a few public appearances, has done little to communicate any position on any of the relevant political issues. Also, despite his state-wide run in 2006, Martin starts off polling behind Vernon Jones and Dale Cardwell in a hypothetical match-up against Saxby Chambliss. Martin will have the resources to pump up his name id and to remind voters of his record, but thus far Martin has run a simple money collection campaign that is not resonating with voters. At the end of the first quarter, Jim Martin has raised $346,675, with a “cash on hand” balance of $333,131.
Second Tier
 Dale Cardwell
Dale Cardwell is a former investigative reporter for WSB-TV. Cardwell was arguably the most aggressive in drawing contrasts during a press conference following his qualification into the race. Cardwell took direct aim at Vernon Jones, calling him a “crook” and a stalking horse for the Republican incumbent Chambliss. Cardwell also took a swipe at Martin, repeating his “Convenientcrat” criticism, after having received a personal assurance from Martin in late 2007 that he would in fact not be running for US Senate. Recent opinion polls continue to show Cardwell leading his competitors in head to head match-ups with Saxby Chambliss. One would think Cardwell’s performance in polling is based partly on his name id from reporting in the Atlanta metro area. But one has to wonder that as the primary moves forward whether Cardwell will have the ability to punch through with such limited resources. This reason alone is keeping Cardwell from the first tier, and is the most likely factor that would keep him from reaching a run-off with Vernon Jones. It seems clear his goal moving forward is to lead the charge exposing Vernon Jones, while offering himself as a more electable alternative to Jim Martin. At the close of the first quarter, Dale Cardwell has raised a total of $141,975, with a “cash on hand” balance of $17,892.
Rand Knight
Rand Knight is an ecologist and political newcomer to Georgia politics. Knight continues to plug away on the campaign trail, and continues to outwork the other candidates by visiting groups and campaigning through out the state. Knight as of late, has been highlighting his green roots by releasing a “Green Deal” plan that mixes environmentalism with new economic growth opportunities.
Strapped with the same fundraising woes as Cardwell, but without the same name id or connection to voters, Rand Knight is in a more difficult climb to create some distance from the “others” and crawl into the first tier. It’s a tough hand to be dealt, and Rand has worked hard campaigning and positioning himself well on policy, but recent endorsements not withstanding it’s difficult to see how a political novice like Rand lands in a competitive race with either Jones or Martin. At the close of the first quarter, Rand Knight has raised a total of $129,030, with a “cash on hand” balance of 17,971. Josh Lanier Josh Lanier is a former Senate aide to Herman Talmedge and former Vietnam Vet. The centerpiece of Lanier’s campaign is adherence to the spirit and letter of a clean campaign, pending legislation that would place strict fundraising rules on candidates who seek voluntary public financing of campaigns. Lanier qualified last week with a jab aimed not at his primary competitors, but at Saxby Chambliss, with the webad entitled “Boomerang”. The ad was a direct parody of the 2002 ad Chambliss ran against frm. Senator Max Cleland, and pointed out Chambliss’ vote against the Webb “Dwell Time” amendment that would have provided for a 1:1 ratio of home to combat time.Lanier also unveiled his new site, and along with it, his “un-campaign”. Clearly, Lanier is taking a completely unconventional approach to the primary, and is attempting to connect with voters outside of the normal stream of expected political discourse (direct mail, tv ads, etc…). So while Lanier has a deep pool of experience in Washington that suits the profile of a major Senate candidate, this unorthodox style puts him at an undeniable disadvantage. As Lanier was not an announced candidate at the close of the first quarter, he was not required to file a campaign disclosure. (This last at a glance can be found here) |
