The desire was real, and the anger was well placed.  To activists of any political party, little does more to boil the blood than a well placed investment that gets turned against you. 


This is the 2nd preview in a series of 6, where we look at the state legislative races we believe have the highest probability of changing hands from Republican to Democratic control.

Party switching is certainly nothing new, but to those who invested time, money, and emotions helping elect Rep. Mike Jacobs (D R-80) to the Georgia House of Representatives, the flip was nothing short of a gun shot to the stomach.

The definitive account was best captured by YDG President, Jason Cecil:

With our encouragement, he decided to make a run at this seat, now House District 80. The seat had long been held by a Republican who had recently died, and Mike's opponent in the general election was the namesake son of that representative. Mike's campaign was COMPLETELY staffed and run by Young Democrats. All of us who worked on that campaign spent countless hours making phone calls, helping with town hall meetings, flyering the district, and going door to door. The district had a Democratic performance of 52%, which made it a swing district. We faced an uphill fight, and the state party gave us no chance of winning. We were truly on our own.

Capitalizing on help from the Democrats, Jacobs was elected in 2004 by a slim margin - capturing 51% of the vote.  But soon, Jacobs arrived at the Gold Dome as a member of a political party turned out of power for the first time since reconstruction.  And even though Rep. Jacobs cruised to an easy victory in ’06 - with over 60% of the vote - the pull of power and majority status was too much for him.  The deed was done, June 2007.

(Photo Credit: Shelbinator)

The 2008 race to extract revenge against Jacobs was an unmitigated disaster.  Lured by the prospects of a young, self-funded businessman, many Democrats quickly fell behind newcomer Keith Gross.  The field was cleared and the battle was joined.  And then it all unraveled.  Keith Gross wasn’t just a political newcomer; Gross couldn’t even prove the simple residency requirements necessary to run for office.  Adding insult to injury, candidate qualifying had passed, virtually ensuring a free ride for the political switcher.  Rep. Jacobs ultimately faced and defeated Michelle Conlon, a Democratic Party proxy who ran as an Independent, in the general election.

Now Rep. Jacobs is a well entrenched incumbent, having been re-elected twice by large margins running as Republican and a Democrat. 

Can Mike Jacobs be beaten?

The obvious answer to that question starts with the prerequisite of fielding a candidate that can withstand vetting, can articulate a message that resonates in the district, and who can raise the necessary money to compete against a well funded incumbent.  In short, it means doing the exact opposite of what went down in 2008.

As far as the district is concerned, and not withstanding the rules of incumbency, the 80th may potentially be the swing district in Georgia.

The 80th is represented, in parts, by 2 popularly elected State Senators from both parties (40th Weber – R, 42nd Adelman – D).  The district has also split down the middle in the last 2 presidential elections (see inset)*. 

The key to performing well will hinge on the competing partisan power centers of the district; the more Republican precincts in the north, versus the more Democratic precincts in the south.  Any candidate will have to bring home voters in left leaning precincts where both Obama and Jacobs garnered over 50% of the vote.  And to the extent possible, any Democrat will have to find a way to make in-roads in the solid right instincts of Dunwoody and precincts in the north.

While the jury is still out on the ability of Democrats to effectively recruit and mobilize against Jacobs, if the Democrats have any hopes of gaining ground in the legislature, we will have to compete and win in reachable districts like the 80th.

(* Note:  It it possibe that given the early voting/absentee advantage of the Obama campaign, he may well have won the 80th.  Since those numbers are not reported by precinct in DeKalb, we will never know.)

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Previous Battlegrounds:

The Tough Nut to Crack - Rep. Jill Chambers

Up Next:

The Trend Races - Rep. David Casas (R-103),  Rep. Rich Golick (R-34)

The Dark Horse District - House District 153

Candidates Matter - Katie Dempsey (R-13)

(All data was pulled from an analysis of precinct election returns that can be found on the secretary of states website. Care was taken to distiguish between vote totals on election day, and early/absentee numbers that may not be reported by precinct.)